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有关习近平访问朝鲜,你应该了解的几件事
The Unspoken Agenda at the Xi-Kim Meeting? Could Be Messaging Trump

来源:纽约时报    2019-06-20 05:12



        Officially, President Xi Jinping of China is visiting North Korea this week to strengthen “strategic communication and exchanges” between the two countries, as he wrote on Wednesday in a front-page op-ed for a North Korean state newspaper.        中国国家主席习近平于本周对朝鲜进行正式访问,正如他在朝鲜一家官方报纸的头版署名文章中所写,这是为了加强两国之间的“战略沟通与交流互鉴”。
        Unofficially, he is likely there to talk about — or at least send a message to — President Trump.        私下里,他可能会在那里讨论特朗普总统,或者至少向特朗普带话。
        Mr. Xi heads to Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, on Thursday for a two-day state visit with Kim Jong-un, the country’s mysterious and mercurial leader. It is the first trip by a Chinese president to North Korea in 14 years, and only the second time a world leader has met Mr. Kim on his home turf.        习近平于周四前往朝鲜首都平壤,进行为期两天的国事访问,会见该国神秘又反复无常的领袖金正恩。这是中国国家主席14年来首次访朝,也是第二次有世界领导人在朝鲜本土会见金正恩。
        The visit comes as the leaders of both countries are locked in stalled disputes with the United States, and each may be looking to the other for help gaining leverage with Mr. Trump. For Mr. Xi, the meeting is a good way of reminding the American president — with whom he is entangled in a trade war and is expected to meet at the upcoming Group of 20 meeting — that China wields valuable influence over the nuclear-capable North.        此次访问正值两国领导人与美国的争端陷入僵局之际,双方可能都在寻求对方帮助,以获得对付特朗普的筹码。对习近平来说,这次会面是一个很好的方式,可以提醒同他在贸易战中酣战,并且不久将在20国集团峰会上碰面的美国总统,中国对朝鲜的核能力拥有重要影响。
        Mr. Kim needs Mr. Xi’s help to get what he always wants: relief from punishing sanctions.        金正恩需要习近平的帮助,得到他一直想要的东西:从惩罚性的制裁中解脱。
        What to expect from the meeting        这次会面有望产生什么结果
        The meeting is likely to include all of the trappings of a state visit, with a dash of North Korean political theater.        这次会晤可能包括国事访问的所有标识,并带有一点朝鲜的政治作秀色彩。
        China and North Korea are commemorating 70 years of diplomatic relations, offering their leaders a chance to recommit to a friendship that was strained by North Korea’s repeated tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, but which has improved since Mr. Kim eased off on them at the end of 2017.        今年是中朝建交70年,令两国领导人有机会重申双方的友谊,在朝鲜一再试射洲际弹道导弹后,两国关系趋向紧张,但自2017年底金正恩放缓了实验后有所缓解。
        In Mr. Xi’s op-ed, he suggested that North Korea was headed in the “correct direction” by reducing weapons testing and deserved some sanctions relief. At the United Nations on Tuesday, China, accompanied by Russia, delayed an American request to increase penalties on fuel imports after the North appeared to violate earlier sanctions.        在习近平的署名文章中,他认为,朝鲜减少武器实验是“正确的方向”,理应放松制裁。周二在联合国,中国和俄罗斯一起推迟了美国提出的在燃料进口方面增加对朝鲜惩罚的要求,此前朝鲜似乎违反了早些时候的制裁。
        If nothing else, Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim, both masters of propaganda, can be expected to use the international media attention to demonstrate to Mr. Trump that they too are proficient deal makers. They have met four previous times, including before each of Mr. Kim’s two summit meetings with Mr. Trump. Those sessions were a reminder that whatever engagement with the West may offer, China remains North Korea’s largest trade partner and most important ally.        不说别的,习近平和金正恩都是政治宣传的大师,预计他们会利用国际媒体的关注,向特朗普表明,他们也很会做交易。两人此前已经见过四次面,包括在金正恩与特朗普的两次峰会之前。这些会面提醒人们,无论与西方进行何种接触,中国仍是朝鲜最大的贸易伙伴和最重要的盟友。
        What should not be expected from the meeting are details.        会晤中最不应当期待的是细节。
        Andrei Lankov, an expert on North Korea and director of the Korea Risk Group, said he expected Mr. Xi to push to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and look for ways he could use the North for leverage in the U.S.-China trade dispute but would not otherwise be “excessively specific.”        朝鲜问题专家、韩国风险集团(Korea Risk Group)主任安德烈·兰科夫(Andrei Lankov)表示,他预计习近平会推动朝鲜半岛维持现状,并寻找在中美贸易争端中利用朝鲜作为筹码的方法,但除此之外,不会“过于具体”。
        At stake for Xi: A costly trade war        习近平的风险:代价高昂的贸易战
        The Pyongyang visit comes as China is locked in a potentially devastating trade war with the United States and less than two weeks before Mr. Xi is expected to sit down with Mr. Trump at the Group of 20 meeting in Osaka, Japan.        习近平出访平壤之际,正值中国陷在一场可能带来破坏性后果的与美贸易战中,不到两周后,习近平预计将同特朗普在日本大阪的20国集团峰会上会面。
        In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has intensified his fight with China, raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products and threatening to tax an additional $300 billion of goods if Beijing does not agree to Washington’s trade terms.        最近几周,特朗普加强了与中国的对抗,对价值2000亿美元的中国产品加征关税,并威胁,如果北京不同意华盛顿提出的贸易条件,将另外再对价值3000亿美元的商品征税。
        Mr. Xi’s visit to the North seems in part intended to convey that if the United States wants China’s help in reining in an often defiant North Korea, it will have to bend on trade.        习近平访朝似乎在一定程度上传达这样的信息——如果美国希望中国帮忙控制一个经常挑衅的朝鲜,它就必须在贸易问题上让步。
        “Xi Jinping wants to secure leverage before he meets Trump” later this month, said Lee Seong-hyon, an analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. “He is sending a signal to Washington that China has a big role to play in achieving the denuclearization of North Korea and that the U.S. should not mistreat China.”        “习近平希望在本月晚些时候与特朗普会面之前获得筹码,”韩国世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)分析师李成贤(Lee Seong-hyon)表示。“他在向华盛顿发出信号,即中国在实现朝鲜无核化方面可以发挥重要作用,美国不应该苛待中国。”
        Talks between the United States and North Korea broke down in February after Mr. Trump, meeting with Mr. Kim in Vietnam, rejected a deal to lift sanctions in exchange for incremental steps toward denuclearization.        今年2月在越南与金正恩会面时,特朗普拒绝了用解除制裁换取逐步实现无核化的协议,美朝谈判随即破裂。
        Given that each of Mr. Kim’s meetings with Mr. Trump has been preceded by one with Mr. Xi, some experts speculate that Mr. Xi’s visit to North Korea this week portends a third nuclear summit meeting between the American and North Korean leaders. If that is true, the meeting in Pyongyang on Thursday is also a reminder to Mr. Trump that Mr. Xi has the potential to scupper any future talks between Washington and Pyongyang.        鉴于金正恩每次见特朗普之前都先与习近平会晤,一些专家推测,习近平本周的朝鲜之行预示着美朝领导人将举行第三次核问题峰会。如果真是这样,周四在平壤的会面也是在提醒特朗普,习近平可以有意破坏华盛顿和平壤在未来的任何谈判。
        The North Korea visit also comes as Mr. Xi may be hoping to shift international news coverage away from the pro-democracy protests roiling Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory.        此次朝鲜之行,可能习近平也正希望国际新闻将焦点从席卷中国半自治领土香港的民主抗议活动转移开。
        China, however, has tried to play down Mr. Xi’s role as international spoiler.        然而,中国一直试图淡化习近平作为国际秩序搅局者的角色。
        “As for whether China is using President Xi’s state visit to the D.P.R.K. as some kind of ‘leverage,’ I must say, people with such an idea are just overthinking,” Lu Kang, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Wednesday, using an acronym for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.        “至于中方是不是把习主席对朝鲜进行国事访问作为某种‘筹码’,我只能说你想多了,”中国外交部发言人陆慷表示。
        “I am sure you are aware that it has been over a year since China-U. S. trade friction started and the two sides began to hold consultations,” Mr. Lu added. “I don’t see why the present is any more sensitive than any time between then and now.”        “我想你也知道,中美贸易摩擦和两国经贸磋商都已经有一年多了,”他后来补充道。“我看不出现在和一年以来任何时间节点相比,存在什么敏感之处。”
        At stake for Kim: An end to sanctions        金正恩的当务之急:结束制裁
        Since coming to power in 2011, Mr. Kim has made it his mission to get his country out from under sanctions that have crippled it.        自2011年掌权以来,金正恩一直把摆脱令朝鲜陷入困境的制裁作为自己的使命。
        He spent his first years in power building nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them, to come to the negotiating table from a position of strength. He has spent the years since looking for ways to trade some of his nuclear program — on his terms and timeline — for sanctions relief. And his country is certainly facing hardship: last month, United Nations agencies said that about 10 million people were facing “severe food shortages” after one of North Korea’s worst harvests in a decade.        在掌权的头几年里,他致力于打造核武器和搭载它们的导弹,以便谈判时能够处在一个有利位置。自那以后,他一直在设法以自己希望的方式和日程来用核项目换取制裁解除。他的国家当然是面临着困境的:上个月,联合国的机构表示,朝鲜出现了十年来最差的收成,约有1000万人面临“严重的粮食短缺”。
        Mr. Xi has already signaled a willingness this week to help an old, albeit recalcitrant, ally.        习近平在本周暗示,有意对这个顽抗的老盟友施以援手。
        The Chinese effectively stopped the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday from declaring that the North had breached its annual limit for importing petroleum products, sparing the country from further punishment.        周二,联合国安理会试图宣布朝鲜超过了石油产品进口的年度上限,被中国有效制止,使朝鲜免遭进一步惩罚。
        And in his Wednesday op-ed, published in the North’s main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, Mr. Xi called Mr. Kim’s demands in his negotiations with Washington “reasonable.”        周三发表在朝鲜主要报纸《朝鲜新闻》的署名文章中,习近平称金正恩在与华盛顿的谈判中所提出的要求是“合理关切”。
        Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Mr. Kim was not above flattering Mr. Xi, his principal benefactor, if it meant getting something in return.        首尔的北韩大学院大学(University of North Korean Studies)教授梁茂进(Yang Moo-jin)说,只要能获得相应回报,金正恩也乐得给习近平搭这个台。
        “By inviting Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un is giving Xi a chance to play and flaunt a mediator’s role on the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Yang said. “In return, North Korea is expecting food aid from China.”        “通过邀请习近平,金正恩给了习近平一个机会,让他在朝鲜半岛扮演和炫耀自己作为调解人的角色,”他说。“反过来朝鲜则会要求得到中国的粮食援助。”
                
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